Ok, so the NY Governor was not following the CDC advice.
Yes he was.
If you are going to insist that the CDC advised that old people infected with COVID be placed in long term care facilities where they could infect others, then we must disagree.
If you find written CDC recommendations to that effect, please share.
Hereâs a cool visual:
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2637725/?fbclid=IwAR3UXX5_69m5lew2ZClrEMrc21bDHNUztpa82rGcrDmtVpCgVsrTA-Qte6o
This doesnât even make sense.
Out of 15 early reopening states studied, 9 had strong increases in hospitalizations as of June 9.
Already your argument got blasted to smithereens.
Then the JHU data show perceptible increases in hospitalizations from early June to today in 4 of the remaining 6 states.
Honestly, Vance, I wish I could be like you: Just plug up my ears, cover my eyes, and wish away the data that show COVID-19 isnât going away without a public policy intervention. My life would be much simpler.
But I donât think thatâs what God is calling me to.
Best,
Chris Falter
P.S. There are public policy interventions short of complete shutdown that can facilitate reopening. The key one is mask regulations, such as the one we have in northern Virginia. Also valuable is contact tracing, which is not being done very well in too many states.
P.S.S. The way youâre throwing spaghetti on the wall is crazy, Vance.
First you pick out just one out of 50 states and tout its confirmed case trend as an exemplar.
When confronted with evidence that confirmed cases are sharply rising in most states that reopened early, you suddenly stop believing in confirmed cases and tout hospitalizations as the trend to watch.
When confronted with evidence that hospitalizations have been rising in 13 of the 15 states being discussed, suddenly increasing hospitalizations becomes a good thing. Yes, more hospitalizations = more damage to the economy, more deaths, and more long-term disability⌠However, Vance argues, we are not stepping toward slavery with mask regulations, so hooray!
Sorry, I just canât go down this route with you, Vance.
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That is certainly not evident from the graphs you posted.
And arenât hospitalizations supposed to increase since we were successful in flattening the curve while the health care system was prepared and now can loosen restrictions?
And hospitalizations should diminish as herd immunity is achieved.
Hospitalizations???
EGADS!
Yes, Greg, Hospitalizations are bad. People out of work and going bankrupt are bad. Covid-19 is bad. Life involves trade-offs and balancing.
I heard one politician (I think it was the mayor of NYC) say âif we can just save one life, this will all be worth it.â With that logic, we should ban motorcycles and change the maximum speed limit to 35 mph. And we should tax sugar and outlaw obesity. Come to think of it, I think the Mayor Bloomberg may have tried to ban or restrict the sale of sweetened drinks.
But the world is more complex than that. And different people have different opinions on what are acceptable restrictions and measures to require.
The news reports that I have seen say Georgia.
Quarantine doesnât seem the right term, by the way. Quarantine is when exposed or sick people are isolated. That is different from isolating people who are not known to have been exposed to a disease.
You are arguing with yourself now, Vance.
Who reopened first?
Headline from Time.com, April 20
South Carolina to Reopen Some Businesses Immediately, Georgia Plans the Same for Later in the Week
Best,
Chris
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Sorry I used the word quarantine incorrectly.
With so many people using words incorrectly, I made a mistake.
The same thing happened to my daughter in Canada not long ago. She accidentally used the term barbecue for grill.
Good for S.C., looks like they may have started a couple of days earlier at setting people free.
So why is it okay to not wear a mask, which risks infecting others?.
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You are showing new cases again, which is a function of testing more than valid data. And your graph doesnât even have a scale! I have made thousands of graphs in my career to evaluate data. Bad graphs mislead people. Graphs without values on the axis are less than worthless, as they can provide misinformation.
Chris, did you miss this earlier? Are you unaware that more testing equals more cases, whether there is an increase in cases or not?
Look at this picture to see how S.C. tests have increased over time:
When the tests increase from about 1500/day to more than 6000/day, of course there are more confirmed cases.
Did anyone notice that the steroid Dexamethasone was found to be effective in treating Covid patients on ventilators? This significantly effects these calculations of infections and hospitalizations.
As I keep saying there are new treatments coming out that will significantly improve outcomes and reduce hospitalization time. We will be very able to treat this virus in those that experience the more severe symptoms. We are a little more advanced than 1918. The pandemic is beginning to come to an end.
You donât get more cases if people donât have the virus. Eventually you can hit a limit where increasing more testing doesnât equal a higher number of cases per day. SC is not even close to that yet with positive case % increasing. AND it is very alarming if you didnât know that COVID-19 was far more widespread than you originally knew. Letâs say you did 2,000 tests and found 100 people have the virus. But if you do 4,000 tests and find 200 people that have the virus thatâs worse. That tells you that youâre still not testing enough AND more people have the virus than you originally knew.
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When you increase the number of tests youâre doing, and at the same time the percentage of tests that come out positive also increases, then the number of infections is increasing. Thatâs the case in South Carolina.
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@learningU
That steroid was big news on the BBC yesterday. The report said its use would have cut UK deaths by 5000 so far if its effectiveness had been known earlier.
@glipsnort
@pevaquark
Yes, a greater percentage of positive tests means more people have the virus, unless the tests are deployed to known hotspots as they have been sometimes. (Remember when positive tests climbed because meat packing plants were targeted?)
And as more people have had the disease, the closer we get to herd immunity.
Weâre having an uptick in my area since Alabama reopened. One local testing service noted that while their number of tests per week hasnât changed, theyâve gone from 3% positive to 14% positive recently.
Our hospitals are in good shape for the moment where I live, but the number of hospitalizations is increasing. We really need to all be wearing masks.
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Havenât the tests always been mainly deployed to hotspots and those already suffering with suspicious symptoms? I mean ⌠unless you are a powerful government figure or a worried millionaire who indulges their fear with multiple tests, the majority of us anywhere have never been tested for obvious reasons. Tests are limited and obviously hot spots and high risk areas ought to get more tests. If anything that was all probably even truer back when tests were harder to come by.
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