There are some cultural differences between Sweden and the neighboring countries that may explain the different strategies. Swedish culture relies much on voluntary approaches, assuming that informed adults will behave in a rational manner. My impression is that Swedes are reluctant to give strict orders, at least before there is enough of reliable information and the matter has been discussed thoroughly. Covid-19 was something novel, not much hard facts. Did not surprise me that Sweden selected recommendations instead of strict orders.
1 Like
A bit more about the background of the Swedish strategy:
When Covid-19 arrived to Sweden and the neighboring countries, a common assumption was that the virus will go through the population like an influenza epidemic. The epidemic would not stop until we have vaccination or until most have had it. Another assumption was that most would get the virus with very mild symptoms, so the true number of recovered persons would be perhaps ten times higher than the number of confirmed cases. Any countermeasures could just slow the epidemic, not stop it. Whatever we do, the final count of victims would not differ much.
From this starting point, Sweden decided to minimize the span of the epidemic and the negative side effects. The neighboring countries decided to slow down the epidemic so much that the health care system can handle all sick patients.
What happened was a surprise. The proportion of people getting covid-19 without symptoms proved to be much lower than expected ā it takes more time than expected to reach herd immunity.
Another surprise was how effective the countermeasures were. The epidemic did not just slow down, covid-19 almost vanished from many regions. And not only covid-19, also the number of influenza cases and comparable lung infections dropped much. Hospitals were preparing for an invasion of seriously ill victims, giving advice that patients with less acute problems should stay home and wait. What happened was that hospitals have suffered from a lack of patients ā the economical situation of many hospitals is now worse than before the pandemics because patients with less acute problems have remained home.
The price of the countermeasures has been huge. If the second wave of the pandemic comes and kills many, the Swedish strategy may turn out to be clever. Otherwise, the Swedes may feel sorry that they made a wrong choiceā¦
2 Likes
I forgot to mention that a University education is free.
1 Like
Sweden is generous and welcomes immigrants, and so has plenty of Arab immigrants. But again, they have a national health care system. .
Sweden is 85% white. The US is 60%.
The non-white population in the US, unfortunately, is affected more severely by Covid-19.
I have heard no evidence that the imbalance has to do with genetic factors related to your ethnic heritage. It has to do with the fact that because of healthcare inequities and other systemic issues, minorities are disproportionately represented in higher risk jobs and living situations and more likely to have pre-existing conditions in urban areas. I predict when the virus hits rural white communities it is going to be a similar story as the urban minority communities, because of the socio-economics.
To compare, you would need to look at Swedes by socio-economic level, not ethnic background.
5 Likes
Thanks for your comment. Thatās happening in the US too. Income has dropped so much with people no longer coming for prevention and routine treatments that the executives and physicians are significant paycuts. Itās worth it to protect those who are much higher risk. Weāll know best in retrospect.
I suspect the ethnicity is less a factor than health and weight.
My point was that Sweden is quite different from the US.
But I do like their freedom and approach to this pandemic.
1 Like
Yes, I think so. And it is not so much racial IMHO, but socio-economic differences.
1 Like
Yes, and also much else is either free or with a low fee, for citizens. The same in the neighboring countries. As a happy taxpayer (Finland) I have learned that the key point is not what you pay (tax rates), itās what you get with the money. My family has got so much that I wouldnāt be able to get the same by buying the services from the private sector.
Free education for all family members (including a daily free meal from the elementary school to the high school level), also University education is free. The best schools are all public schools; all teachers are trained in universities. Healthcare with very low fees and an upper limit (<700 euros) for annual costs within the public healthcare. A peaceful society because all citizens know that the state will not let them starve to death and the police etc. treat all citizens equally. Nice.
3 Likes
I personally think a 10% death rate in the US would have been even more utterly catastrophic.
So do I, but I donāt think the death rate for Covid-19 is 10% anywhere in the world, with the possible exception of homes for very old people with many underlying conditions and deaths with comorbidities.
If you think the death rate in Sweden was 10%, then I think you have the wrong denominator in the calculation.
Of course Sweden will accumulate deaths faster because the disease is spreading faster there due to a lack of stringent measures and loss of freedoms.
The immunity to the disease is also spreading faster there, so part of this difference, maybe a large part, is timing.
I guess one question I have is if we delay things adequately, say to 60% IgG positivity in the general population, would the risk of transmission be low enough that our elderly would be safer? So far it seems that isolating only those most at risk hasnāt worked.
If the 3:2 death rate ratio were transferred to the US the 100,000 deaths may have been 150,000 by now (presuming all other variables were equal, which they arenāt).
Thereās no silver bullet. We need much prayer for this, donāt we?
I donāt think we have tried to isolate those most at risk.
In fact, the governor of NY forced nursing homes to take sick patients. The governor sent people sick with Covid-19 into the most vulnerable population and left the temporary hospital largely empty.
Encouraging many families to take grandmommy home and away from the nursing home might have been a better approach.
The 3:2 death rate ratio is quite suspect, as the death rate seems to be deaths per number of cases. (Let me know if that is not how you read it.) The number of cases for Sweden and the number of cases for the US have much uncertainty.
I suspect at around 65% herd immunity is met and the virus dies out rather than spreads. That is the number that I heard today on CNNās interview of the head of the firm that just was awarded a billion dollars to prepare to make doses of a vaccine.
I think we need prayer for the mental health and peace of the people suffering. But God does not heal everyone (despite the opinions of Pentecostal friends). Jesus likely had to step over many praying sick people to heal the lame man at the pool by the Sheep Gate in John 5. He could have healed them all but did not.
Here are the estimates in Wikipedia:
Good question. No, the number is the " 7-day rolling average of daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million."
It seemed that Sweden, by more of a laissez faire approach, has a higher number of deaths per total population on a 7 day rolling average than those who practice stricter protection. I am sorry if I was being obtuse. Thanks.
Sweden certainly has a higher death rate (per capita) than its neighbors, but beyond that itās hazardous to make comparisons ā there are just too many variables that affect the course of the pandemic in different countries. Which control measures are most important is very poorly understood at present, as is the willingness of populations to support different kinds of control, and both factors will vary from country to country. Sweden made a calculated gamble that more modest restrictions would be adequate given their society (which has low population density and citizens that are likely to follow government suggestions) and more sustainable long term than harsher measures. Since weāre still in the early phase of the pandemic, I think itās too soon to tell whose approach is better.
2 Likes
I looked at the article several times. I saw that definition several times. I noted each time that it is unclear.
Per million what?
Per million population? Per million known cases? Per million possible cases?
If it is per million population, then there should be many more deaths in a country with the bars and restaurants still open and people going to work, because the virus has spread faster.
Do you understand, Randy, that more deaths early and fewer deaths later are expected in a society with the virus spreading faster? In the absence of a vaccine, the difference is timing, not lethality.
If the virus is spreading 1.5 times (3:2) faster in more-open Sweden than it is in a closed country, then the deaths should be 1.5 higher early in the pandemic in Sweden than in the closed country (all other things being equal). As herd immunity grows, the deaths will catch up in the closed country (absent a vaccine).
1 Like
In Sweden, 49% of deaths happened in elder care homes, 25% in home care (nurses/helpers visiting the home regularly). In the age category <50 years, only 42 deaths (statistics 28. May).
It seems that the spread of the virus to elder care homes and homes visited by nurses was the main reason for the high number of deaths in Sweden. If the spread of the virus to elder care homes could be prevented, the number of deaths could be cut by half, even if the rest of the society would continue their daily lives as usual. Based on what happened in Sweden, a recipe for lower death rate seems to be simple: focused restrictions and prayer (prayer is my own addition, I donāt know how much the Swedes have prayed).
Edit: we all die one day, if the return of Jesus does not happen soon. In the age category 85+ years (including about half of the coronavirus deaths in Sweden), the death rate will be high, covid or not. In this group, the deaths caused by covid-19 may take a few years from the life and cause sorrow among close relatives. On the other hand, we have a hope that death is just a gateway to something better. I will of course do everything I can to protect the elderly from getting the virus (including my parents). Yet, I have a bit mixed feelings whether I should mourn or rejoice, when an old believer gets a promotion to heavenly lifeā¦
2 Likes