One of the things that is wowing people (or freaking them out, depending on your point of view) is the ability of ChatGPT to write computer code. Some people worry in case this is going to make all of us software developers redundant, and other people worry in case it is going to result in artificial intelligence improving itself in ways that are unsupervised and unpredictable. Welcome to The Matrix, Skynet, or <insert your dystopian singularitarian sci-fi movie of choice here>.
Will this happen? It remains to be seen. But I don’t think that software development as a career is under threat just yet. ChatGPT and GPT-4 seem to do really well at generating simple scripts and code to solve common problems, but if you have specific and detailed requirements (as is always the case when programming in a business context), you have to drill down into a lot of detail with your prompts to get exactly what you want, to the extent that you almost might as well just write the code yourself. Certainly I don’t see it taking the job of writing code away from programmers and putting it into the hands of business analysts.
Rather more interesting is GitHub Copilot, which can take comments that you write in your source code and churn out complete functions for you. But again, I don’t think this is going to challenge programmers’ jobs—on the contrary, it’s simply going to make us more ambitious in the kinds of projects that we try to tackle.
Another point worth making is that large language models such as ChatGPT are computationally expensive, requiring vast data centres to get the kind of results of which they are capable. Apparently training GPT-4 cost somewhere in the region of $100 million. You can of course run LLMs on your own laptop, but they will naturally be much more limited in what they can achieve and much more prone to making mistakes.