If herd immunity were the cause of cases going down in states that issued mask ordinances, super-spreader events wouldn’t happen, right?
Last month, a local church had a gospel meeting, a singing, and a potluck. My state has a mask ordinance, and numbers have gone down a bunch since that was enacted. But religious services are exempt from that ordinance, and many of the members at this particular church don’t believe in wearing masks. They were also singing inside, many without masks. Suddenly, people started getting sick. By the following weekend after those events, 113 members of that congregation were sick, and the normal size of that congregation is less than 150. The number sick also doesn’t account for families from other congregations that were affected. One family in my congregation attended the gospel meeting and got sick. Thinking they just had allergies, they had two other families over for dinner that weekend. A couple days later, both of those families ended up sick and tested positive. The family that had the dinner never got tested, but at least one member lost sense of taste and smell, so it’s obvious they had it and passed it on to the other two families. Another couple families also got sick from that church’s activities. Thankfully, since my church is NOT singing inside and we are following distance recommendations when inside, and many of us wear masks, no one else got sick in our congregation, despite the family that spread it at the dinner being present the Sunday morning after the dinner.
So where was the herd immunity? It’s not there. If you have herd immunity, then gathering with others without distancing or wearing masks should not cause widespread disease. The fact is, we still get super-spreader events when people don’t heed the health guidance. When people do heed the guidance, a positive case showing up doesn’t cause widespread disease. We aren’t seeing super-spreader events where everyone was distanced and/or wearing masks. Do you know of any?
Natural herd immunity for this disease would cause way too much longterm illness and death. A friend of mine has a 16 year old son with Covid right now. He’s on day 27 of fever and other symptoms. He was a healthy, active kid with no comorbidities. He obviously didn’t have herd immunity.