Georgia Update — it has been a while

Or War Eagle, as the case may be.

Or even ‘reck Tech.

I’m more of a hockey fan, so Go Chargers! :slight_smile:

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Weekly update, and the most recent week most likely has incomplete data.

Still declining.

Here is some data taken from: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/georgia/hospitalization

I went ahead and plotted current hospitalizations which show a decrease but not quite as dramatic as what you have there.

Edit: Oh they already plot their own data on this page for GA:

Sadly more people are dying still in GA with the 7 day moving average still trending upwards. Most of the case decrease is happening in young age groups with detected cases over 70 seeing less motion:

image

Hi Vance,

The lines on your graph are unlabeled, so it is hard to understand what they represent.

Also, would you kindly share the source of your data? The graph appears to be a screenshot of some kind, so it also appears to be the result of some sort of interaction with a data source. Could you help us understand what manipulations you performed to view the graph?

Thanks,
Chris

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The legend is in the opening post.

The “manipulations” (telling choice of words, by the way) are clicking on Georgia, all data, 18-49, and 65 plus.

Leaving in all the data makes the graph too busy and does not change the story, although choosing the younger age groups does add data that support keeping kids in school.

The link is

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

Thanks.

I expect this downward slope will continue as we move closer to herd immunity.

In my line of work, that is not a pejorative term. Data scientists routinely talk about munging data, transforming it, manipulating it, etc.

Peace,
Chris

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In common usage, I suspect, clicking on “Georgia” and clicking on three broad age ranges is not manipulation.

Georgia hospitalizations continue to decline.

This is more evidence that we approach herd immunity.

The black line is overall.

The red line is 65+

As always, the last week may have incomplete data.

And you know the cause is predominantly the approach of herd immunity how?

An alternative explanation is that Georgians’ adherence to mask guidelines increased in late July and August, as seen in the data from healthdata.org:

http://www.healthdata.org/acting-data/maps-mask-use

This alternative explanation (better mask adherence ==> reduced COVID transmission) has the additional virtue of being consonant with the scientific literature:

AI2 Leaderboard.

I concede that it is not necessarily a completely binary analysis (all mask effect + no herd immunity vs. all herd immunity + no mask effect). Nevertheless, your ascription of causality purely to herd immunity needs to be reassessed in light of the scientific literature and behavior surveys of Georgians.

Peace,
Chris

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Did you misread or misinterpret my post? Your question implies a mischaracterization.

I said evidence, not proof.

I will be interested to see what the graph looks like tomorrow.

I still can’t help but to think of this satirical snarky saying I saw once.

Everyone be very afraid of Covid and shut down the entire economy almost really crippling a lot of businesses and workers. Be afraid of it because it’s a virus so deadly half the people that get it don’t even know they had it. The majority who gets it never even goes to a hospital. Shake at the horror of the virus that kills almost no one and almost everyone it kills suffered from a compromised immune system. So everyone be very afraid.

That is one of the realities of the virus. I’m not sure if the cost and risk vs benefit assessments on it concerning keeping the economy open. But the other reality is that even that very small percentage of healthy individuals who died , and those who were not healthy, still matter. So I’m fine with wearing masks and some social distancing but as more time goes the more i definitely support fully opening the economy until fall and the possible outbreaks begin picking back up.

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You stated that the decline in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths was evidence of the approach of herd immunity.

I stated that the decline is evidence of increased mask adherence. I provided a strong Bayesian prior by citing several empirical studies that show causal link between improved mask adherence and decreased COVID transmission.

You should be proud of your fellow Georgians, Vance. They’ve been demonstrating improved concern for fellow citizens by better mask adherence.

Perhaps you misread and mischaracterized mine. But I will leave that judgment up to our readers.

Peace,
Chris

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No, I think that I read yours properly and you misinterpreted mine.

What statistics support your claim of “better mask adherence?” I am not disagreeing with you, only questioning how you came to that conclusion. Was it based on data and observation or hope and wishes?

Peace,
Chris

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I’m kind of curious what you mean by “support fully opening the economy.” What parts of the economy are closed that you are thinking of that need to be reopened or how could we, as a population, do what you think would be best for our country?

Open all businesses back up to full capacity and hours including those whose sole goal is entertainment and schools. Pushing for more tourism. Very simply. Go back to how it essentially was prior to the various federal, state, and local regulations with the exception of encouraging masks and being six feet apart and limiting visiting with those that have a compromised immune system.

Ok so you mean specifically things like bars, clubs, etc. should just operate as normal already? You can’t have it both ways where you want places to operate at full capacity but then say:

Many places in our society cannot operate at full capacity if you want people to be six feet apart. It is also challenging to do many activities with face masks like drinking or eating.

Or any other potential risk factor? Or anyone who contacts anyone who has any risk factor? How are people to know who has what condition or not? Do we need all people to have a public database of all underlying health conditions and then check to see if someone is in the database before we visit them? Maybe it’s kind of impossible to just “stay away from anyone who could have a bad outcome?” What about those that were previously healthy and are now stuck with “Long-COVID?” How can we avoid giving those people a virus that will take them out for months to longer?

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You right. I think we should go ahead and get rid of the masks and six feet apart in all honesty. It’s not enforced, and inside places like restaurants and bars you already don’t need to wear them. I guess maybe just keep masks and six feet apart for grocery stores.