I agree that in principle it could be possible, but I don’t expect it to be the case. It’s clear enough that adaptive mutations are the rarest class. There’s no apparent bias in the direction of adaptive mutations - indeed the opposite is true. Still, I don’t think it is possible to demonstrate that all the mutations are random with respect to fitness.
As I said in another comment, you can’t do a God-free control to see how things would work. No experiment, natural or humanly contrived can guarantee that God didn’t do any little miracles, so you have no way to do the definitive experiment or observations. I think ID is driven by the hope that they can “prove” God’s miraculous activity. I agree that design is a good intuition looking at the universe in general, and remembering that we are reasoning from what human design looks like to what divine design looks like, and there’s not much reason to expect them to have that much in common. Also, this is not heaven - there’s no reason to expect perfection.
As usual, I agree with Pascal, in that God is not so interested in compelling the mind as he is in the decision of the will. Faith isn’t unreasonable (I’m not a fideist, who believes that reason has nothing to do with it, or a hyper-fideist who thinks that we should believe against the evidence) but reason is not the whole story in very many of our decisions, and surely not what we do about religious belief or disbelief. I don’t agree with George Murphy on some things, but I did learn from him that natural theology tends to get out of hand, and I think the ID movement reflects that.
As to less rigorous tests of ID predictions, I’m not enough of a population geneticist to be able to assess that. I’m pretty sure that if I was, I wouldn’t invest my time on it. You have to pick your battles, and there is a reason my blog is called The Art of the Soluble (borrowed from Peter Medawar, the Nobel immunologist.)
When you set out to “prove” God’s activity, you’re trying to find a way to compel people to believe. Compulsion is politics, culture war, and the first casualty of war is honesty. The DI has asked me before to sign their manifestos, but I didn’t, because I knew what use they would be put to, and I wanted no part of it.