The time scale of the bottleneck?

[glipsnort (Steve Schaffner)]

@aarceng

The human genome is ~3.2 billion base pairs so that means 0.72% to 1.22% single-base substitutions when comparing human and chimpanzee genomes. (99.3% - 98.8% similarity)

Skip the genome size and just calculate the rate of difference from the mutation rate and the approximate number of generations. The range is 0.76% to 1.29%.

@aarceng

So, from your reference, the answer to my question is that any less than 98.8% similarity is inconsistent with the evolution hypothesis. 95% is 4 times too much difference (5%/1.22%). Evolution is a faith because common ancestry doesn’t add up.

You seem to have missed something. The range of single base differences is predicted to lie between 0.76% and 1.29% (roughly). The observed rate of single base differences between the species is 1.23%. To predict the total genetic difference between the species requires a good estimate of the mutation rate for insertions and deletions, including large ones, which we do not have. These mutations are less frequent than single-base substitutions but contribute more total sequence change.