There is definite irony in demanding personal liberty at the expense of liberty from COVID-19 for others.
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We already have excellent data for regional analyses.
For confirmed cases below, notice that the South has had such an explosion in cases over the past month that they have had to get their own scale. Meanwhile, New England is doing really well and the Mid-Atlantic states have stabilized.
Is the increase in cases due to increased testing or to increased incidence? If the test positivity is going up, epidemiologists including Fauci assert the increased cases reflect increased infections rather than increased tests.
How about hospitalizations? Unfortunately, the news is terrible in the South and Soutwest, and the West is not far behind.
Deaths are a lagging indicator. The fact that they have already started to increase in the South and Southwest likely means that explosion in hospitalizations is pointing to an ominous trend in COVID deaths.
The death trends are particularly troubling when we zoom in to the states that have become COVID epicenters over the past month.
Source
Chris
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Thanks Chris.
It looks like we are making progress towards herd immunity, as the number of cases is estimated to be 10 times the number reported.
That is a prudent move, in case there are problems in developing a vaccine.
In the diversity of opinions, there are more potential paths for success.
I saw a report on the BBC today in which OXFAM predicted there may be more deaths from starvation from the economic shutdown than from Covid-19.
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Dale,
Are you aware that this article neglects to mention the fact that people who have made the antibodies before have bodies that recall how to make them and make them much more quickly,
Dr. Birx made this point recently in an AARP article.
When a key point like that is hidden, the article is doing irresponsible fear-mongering.
Do I need to post the link to the article by Dr. Birx again?
I havenât read the whole thread, so if you have it handy, do. I can search for it easily enough, of course.
Ah, you did. Thank you.
Hardly. It also wasnât being simplistic. There is a lot we still donât know.
But you seemed so certain before!
Certain enough to lock down society while people suffer from forced isolation, deprived of a way to make a living.
Your model of freedom Sweden has no economic benefit to show for its death rate.
âThey literally gained nothing,â said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. âItâs a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.â
Implicit in these approaches is the assumption that governments must balance saving lives against the imperative to spare jobs, with the extra health risks of rolling back social distancing potentially justified by a resulting boost to prosperity. But Swedenâs grim result â more death, and nearly equal economic damage â suggests that the supposed choice between lives and paychecks is a false one: A failure to impose social distancing can cost lives and jobs at the same time.
Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.
Looks to me like another clear case of what seems intuitively obvious doesnât actually turn out to be true when it comes to economics.
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Comparing a country which hasnât gone into lockdown to a country that has requires an adjustment in timing, doesnât it? Sweden may simply be farther along.
Of course, there are lots of people who have an interest in disagreeing with the Swedish approach.
Itâs funny, but I didnât mention lockdown, did I. What I was so certain about and still am is that responsible adults will wear masks in public places and particularly indoors around those with whom they are not domiciled and not have to have the government mandate it. But we are not all responsible adults.
From Arizona, appropriately enough:
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More information on Sweden:
Summary: Allowing people freedom to make their own choices can be a good thing,
Youâre missing the main point that there was zero economic benefit for them.
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I doubt that.
The first quarter. Right. 0.1%.
I am not naive enough to expect that facts and better arguments will ever make you reconsider areas where you are wrong. I just thought Iâd put it out there for the benefit of other people on this thread.
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Dale, did you bother to check that growth against other countries? The US first quarter contracted 5%.
The EU was down 3.3-3.8%, depending on whether you look at the EU or the EU area.
Christy,
I offered you some alternate data, and I did not insult you.