Thanks Eddie,
You view any confidence that abiogenesis is likely to have a natural explanation as a probably subconscious naturalistic bias ingrained by scientific training. I think that such psychological conjectures put you on extremely shaky ground, especially when those who actually hold the position explicitly state that their reasons lie elsewhere, lay out their reasons for coming to this conclusion and state that they are convinced by these instead of by some feeling of how it “must” be. On my own account, I’m not addressing the question against some sweeping background of an inflexible worldview, I’m addressing it with a number of points in mind that convince me that natural explanation just happens to be the right horse to bet on.
I’m not unsympathetic to the influence of bias, even when a position is reasoned through, but since any thoughts on this topic for me immediately gravitate to the specific points I have been trying to bring across instead of to any deductions from my scientific training or my worldview, I tend to view your description of the EC mindset on this topic as simply inaccurate as a generalization, even where I’ll admit that it may characterize some thinkers. You could suggest that the considerations I’ve listed are just a smokescreen I have set for myself to hide my true reasons for coming to this conclusion, but I’m sorry to say that I can’t take such psychological second guessing seriously and it is intrinsically a weak argument unless it is supported by something greater than a hunch. As I’ve said, some ECs are probably motivated in this way (or by all sorts of other bizarre considerations), and their statements will give the game away, but you have vastly overextended this to ECs who have given no such hints and who are ready to give reasons why they vouch for the a non-interventionist account.
I don’t think I should relist the reasons why I take a different view, since I think they were clear enough. You have offered a number of reasons that contribute to your own background tendency. Some of them are philosophical and I was not unaware of them, but since I am addressing a question about probabilities relating to a natural phenomenon, these philosophical considerations strike me as being intrinsically unlikely to be directly helpful and very likely to be misleading when working out the probabilities of any given hypothesis. Philosophical considerations do not contribute to the probability calculus that leads us to our personal conclusions on probability questions, it can only serve to expand or restrict the range of options.
Since we both agree on what not to rule out, the philosophical considerations you bring are not useful for differentiating our positions (though they are good for distinguishing from the strict materialist position), while we clearly disagree on the psychological considerations as I mentioned above (on this point I can at the very least state that you are incorrect in one case and probably incorrect for many other ECs).
What’s left? This is where it get’s interesting. You make statements like “But so far that is not what the best science tells us. So far, the best science tells us that life has specific arrangements which by their very nature do not proceed from natural laws alone and which are very unlikely to have arisen by chance” and your reference to James Tour lay the groundwork of your position. James Tour is an expert in his field, but he is also someone who seems to take the argument from personal incredulity far more seriously than the question warrants. Both the statement and the reference make it clear that probably your main exposure to this question is mediated through the discovery institute and those who are associated or sympathetic with it. Nothing intrinsically wrong with this, but it is difficult to deny that they are strongly motivated to view the scientific effort to assess the question as a failure and their entire raison d’etre is related to their efforts to identify God’s handiwork by scientific means. James Tour seems to be connected with this drive to see the scientific account in general as incomplete and he is simply not representative of the perspective of the vast majority of scientists on questions like evolution. It doesn’t mean he’s wrong, it means that with the exception of more specific questions relating to nanotechnology, he is a very poor envoy for delivering any message about what the best science tells us on subjects like evolution and abiogenesis.
And much more to the point, your above sentence is very problematic. You start by saying that the best science tells us that life has specific arrangements; though I would clarify this by correcting it to “life has a range of specific arrangements that are mapped to niche specific fitness landscapes”, since this probably is a more realistic description and it avoids the sense that only a discrete and very limited set of molecular arrangements are viable overall. That aside, you go on to say what the best science tells us; “…which by their very nature to not proceed from natural laws alone and which are very unlikely to have arisen by chance”. I strongly take issue with this; I can’t imagine where or when the best science has concluded that the very nature of these molecular arrangements requires something beyond natural laws or where the probabilities have been worked out in a way that is generally accepted by scientists. It seems to me that either finding would be viewed as a breakthrough scientific discovery. You say “the best science”, but since I don’t think it’s possible that I would have overlooked these conclusions if they were generally recognized conclusions, I’m guessing that what you mean is “ID science”. The very terminology being used is well outside the limits of scientific investigation (how on earth would one go about determining whether some arrangement in nature required the involvement of something beyond nature to come into being)?
Some of your follow up sentences bring me to a similar conclusion; “So what is the evidence, at present, that life could be formed out of the unguided movement of atoms and molecules? Close to zero.” This almost automatically reminds me of the absurd tornado in a junkyard argument. Not a single scientist is investigating the possibility that unguided atomic and molecular movements on their own produced complex arrangements that led to life. Obviously a “ratchet” approach (well described by Dawkins for evolution) is the best one, which is why scientists like Cairns-Smith have considered clay crystal minerals as a first step, whatever the merit of his approach. They are looking for how patterns and chains can spontaneously form and they are looking for what conditions will make each step toward self-replicators locally favorable, rendering the overall string of events likely or even inevitable. Obviously probabilities calculated on all of the atoms just happening to bump into each other in the right way are silly and are not taken seriously by anyone. You have essentially guessed at an overall probability (“close to zero”) without any of the knowledge about the specific conditions and interactions that are wholly necessary for determining the probability of each step that leads to this overall outcome, and this knowledge is logically prior to even beginning to think in terms of probabilities.
Your analysis of theological and philosophical questions are generally excellent, but these few statements on scientific/probability questions have very serious problems associated with them and are very poor fodder for any assessment.
Even your discussion of thermal vents is problematic, because it fails to account for the fact that any nascent early steps in the formation of life are rendered nearly impossible by the fact that this is no longer an abiotic world; any formation of some organic soup in today’s world is almost immediately food for scavengers in the food chain, and even controlled lab experiments are always in danger of being upset by contamination from the highly evolved life-forms already present.
In short, I do not think your scientific account stems from sources that can be relied upon to be unbiased, and I think the statements you have offered about scientific considerations have very clear problems and can’t be used to arrive at any conclusions. Nor do I think that they directly respond to the stated reasons that I view the natural account as more likely. Much of what you say is clear and advances the discussion, but I think that our biggest disagreement continues to be on scientific questions, and I think that my original and overall point was simply that your view that some naturalistic bias is all that is driving the EC position is very far from the mark. I’m open to new philosophical considerations but so far I can’t see them resolving these issues.
I enjoy our discussions and particularly your depth and clarity, so thanks for giving your thoughts on this!