Bayes Theorem can help us here. Let’s warm up by applying it to the account of King Alulim in Erudig.
We have two theories before us to explain the account of his supposed 28,800 reign:
- The number is an approximation of a real chronological time period
- The number is based on cultural factors.
In probability terminology:
- P(real chronology | account of 28,800) - the probability that Alulim really reigned for about 28,800 years, given the existence of such an account.
- P(cultural factors | account of 28,800) - the probability that cultural factors are explanatory, given the existence of such an account
According to Bayes Rule:
P (real chronology | account) = P(account | real chronology) * P( real chronology) / P (account)
…and the key term is P(real chronology). I assert that P(real chronology) = 0.000000 because people don’t live past 110-120 years. Care to disagree?
Now let’s look at the other possibility:
P(cultural factors | account) = P(account | cultural factors) * P(cultural factors) / P (account)
I assert that:
- P(account | cultural factors) is close to 1.0.
- P(cultural factors) is close to 1.0 because culture plays a large role in the telling of stories
And now we don’t really need to evaluate P(account) because the numerator is so large.
The conclusion of this Bayesian analysis is that cultural factors, not an approximation of a real chronology, explain the account of King Alulim.
A similar analysis could be applied to the ages of the patriarchs in Genesis 5, with similar results.
- Our prior for P(cultural factors) might only be 0.5 because the Hebrews were not necessarily copycats of the Babylonians in all things, but the probability of cultural factors as the explanation for the given ages is very close to 1.0 because P(account | cultural factors) > 0/9 based on your numerical analysis and the P(account) is well below 1.0 (because there are plenty of accounts of ages in Genesis that fall below 120).
- P(real chronology, approximated) is extremely low because the age is so far beyond medical possibilities, and there is no hint of a divine miracle that would override biological reality.
Blessings,
Chris Falter