Evolution is a faith because common ancestry doesn't add up

[glipsnort (Steve Schaffner)]

@Clint_Goolsby

In actuality there is not neccessarrily 50 mutations per generation, in fact its a yearly progression of depending on circukstances .1 to 1 bp per year so 25 year old having offspring would be between 2.5 and 25 bp mutations however only approximately 1 in 2 chance of those being passed at best however correction lowers that to 1 in 4 , remember chromosones are in sets of 2 and you only pass one so mutation on non paased sequence is meaningless so on average less than half of mutations are passed to offspring due to correction. Secondarily even the number of 50 mutations already takes in to account both parents and average age. So 50 per generation witha persistance rate of 50 percent into the following generation which again perpetuatis itself. Incomplete math is a pet peve of mine. 300000 generations and 50 per would yield only 15 million events in a lineage remember both parents are considered and the larger the population the less likely a full adoption of genomic change is to take place.

Current estimates for the human mutation rate range roughly from 1.0 to 1.7 x 10^-8 mutations per bp per generation. Note that these estimates are almost always for the single-base substitution rate; the total mutation rate, including insertions and deletions, will be something like 20% higher. That translates into 30 to 50 single-base substitutions per genome copy per generation. If human-chimpanzee speciation occurred 7 million years ago, from an ancestral population size of 50,000, and if mean generation time was 25 years, then a human and a chimpanzee genome should be separated by ~380,000 generations (280,000 generations back to the speciation time, and another 100,000 generations for chromosomes within the ancestral population to coalesce). With the range of mutation rate estimates from above, that means we should expect to see between 23 million and 39 million single-base substitutions when comparing human and chimpanzee genomes. We actually observe 35 million. Where’s the problem, exactly?

@Clint_Goolsby

And if we are talking distinct species a bottleneck event has to take place to seperate it.

No, there need be no bottleneck in speciation.

@Clint_Goolsby

Now with the persistance generation to generation you can figure at most 7.5 of those 15 million to make it through the lineage if its a small population and vastly less if its a larger population simce more unaltered pairs exist to fix the error expecially with non advantageous pairings.

I don’t know what you’re trying to say here, but it doesn’t seem to have anything to do with the calculation you’re trying to do. Population size is irrelevant if you’re calculating the difference between two genomes – you’re just counting how many mutations have occurred in the two lineages since the two copies were identical.

@Clint_Goolsby

Alot of our genomic change expectations are based on currently observed mutation rates which are in a much more mutagenic environment

I know of no evidence that this is true. If anything, modern chemical exposure might have increased the mutation rate, not decreased it.