India also has a lot of people so the key question is the percentage who are vaccinated. A bit over half of the eligible population (i.e., no children) have received one jab of a multi jab regime (one of the vaccines they use has 3 shots required but does not seem as effective as some others [it isn’t approved in the US]), but, only 20% of eligible adults are fully vaccinated (and then there are the children). Note that 50% is no where near herd immunity with Covid-19.
4 Likes
They actually have a fall in cases according to stats I just looked at. Few were vaccinated when they had a huge peak this summer. Could you share where you are getting information about rising rates?
1 Like
This was yesterday:
(I don’t know why that date stamp is there! 
)
2 Likes
I see this is from a month ago.
I note that the article states:
- Lesson 1. Immunity from the vaccine dips over time.
- Lesson 2. The delta variant broke through the vaccine’s waning protection.
- Lesson 3. If you get infected, being vaccinated helps.
- The good news is that among Israel’s serious infections on Thursday of this week, according to Health Ministry data, the rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people over age 60 (178.7 per 100,000) was nine times more than the rate among fully vaccinated people of the same age category, and the rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people in the under-60 crowd (3.2 per 100,000) was a little more than double the rate among vaccinated people in that age bracket.
- The bad news, doctors say, is that half of Israel’s seriously ill patients who are currently hospitalized were fully vaccinated at least five months ago. Most of them are over 60 years old and have comorbidities. The seriously ill patients who are unvaccinated are mostly young, healthy people whose condition deteriorated quickly.
- Lesson 4. Israel’s high vaccination rate isn’t high enough.
- Lesson 5. Vaccinations are key, but they are not enough.
- Lesson 6. Booster shots offer more protection — if you are one of the world’s lucky few to get them.
I received my second Moderna shot/jab mid-April and hope to get my free Moderna booster shot/jab in mid-October, but wonder if I can expect a booster shot/jab every 5 months, as opposed to the current projected roll out six months after the 2nd vaccination, until the unvaccinated decrease substantially in numbers.
5 Likes
Ah, Israel, not India. Not much to add to Terry’s good answer, other than that the more people who are vaccinated, the higher the percentage of people who get ill will be in the vaccinated group. That is, if 100% of the population were vaccinated, then 100% of those with disease would be in the vaccinated group. Total numbers of those afflicted are more important, as vaccine rates go up.
5 Likes
Right! @SaraBerk , does it help to imagine a burning house, and get a report that the water isn’t putting out as much of the fire as we would like? It’s still way better than not using water at all…and saves many from death and illness. It is not an argument against fighting the fire. Thanks
6 Likes
First time I’ve heard it put that way. Nice.
1 Like
I think it’s still an open question whether any additional boosters will be needed after a third shot.
3 Likes
Yes, sorry! Should we be paying more attention to the death rate or ICU patients then?
I found this article that I thought put it well. So although the vaccine doesn’t fully protect you from getting the virus and you are still able to infect others, the chances of vaccinated people dying or having serious illness is much lessened, right?
I’m wondering, too, if when vaccinated patients experience mild Covid if their risk of having long Covid decreases or their risk of lung damage decreases?
Do most vaccines effectiveness wane over time?
Thank you Terry!
1 Like
I also have some questions , though for Sara.
-
Do you think think that those with the vaccine tend to do better than those without the vaccine that catches covid and ends up at the hospital?
-
Do you believe that by getting the vaccine you can help prevent avoidable death to those with weakened immune systems?
-
Do you think that those with the vaccine, that gets sick, recover faster than those without the vaccine? For those that are asymptomatic, do you believe those with the vaccine get the virus under control faster in their body and by how much faster? Does that shorted level of activity cut down on the chances of the virus mutating and spreading from person to person?
-
Do you feel that those who get the vaccine are at a higher chance of dying or something going wrong than those who don’t get the vaccine?
The number that is informative is the percent of the vaccinated population who are getting breakthrough infections.
The news likes to report on the percent of cases in a hospital that are vaccinated, but that is actually a pretty meaningless stat.
Here is a graphic @pevaquark shared not too long ago that explains the math.
Here’s is my further explanation of it:
In places with higher levels of vaccination, you will also have much higher percentages of people in the hospital with breakthrough infections. The lower the rate of vaccination, the higher the percentage of people in the hospital will be unvaccinated. “Percent of people in the hospital who were vaccinated” is not nearly as informative as “Percent of the vaccinated public that has been hospitalized.”
Note how vaccination rates do significantly affect the spread (number of total cases in a population) and the severity of the outbreak (number of hospitalizations).
70% vaccinated leads to (pictured on the right):
8,800 total cases
634 hospitalizations
12% of the hospitalized vaccinated
92% vaccinated leads to (pictured on the left)
5,280 total cases
270 hospitalizations
40% of the hospitalized vaccinated
But again, the percent of the hospitalized who are vaccinated is not the important number to think about when you are trying to evaluate vaccine efficacy. It’s the total number of people who end up in the hospital. We need to think in terms of the percent of the vaccinated population that was hospitalized. In both of the above scenarios, that percentage is the same: .012%
Yes, as is the chance that you will get infected in the first place.
I read an article not too long ago about this. It seems the vaccine makes the chance of long COVID go down, but not go away. Something like 5% compared to 20-30% of people who weren’t vaccinated.
It depends on the kind of microorganism that the vaccine is fighting. Measles vaccines work for life, but flu vaccines only for about a year. Tetanus vaccines last for 10 years, chicken pox vaccines/immunity lasts for 50. (That’s why people over 50 get shingles vaccines.) Some viruses (like the common cold) mutate a lot so vaccines can’t keep up. Some aren’t as prone to mutation but an infection doesn’t produce enough antibodies for long lasting immunity. Some of it depends on what part of the body the virus attacks. Viruses that attack the respiratory track don’t cause the body to produce as many antibodies.
5 Likes
Thank you. I’m confused about the chart and explanation I think. The more people who are vaccinated, the less cases there should be, right? If we get to almost 100% in the US wouldn’t that lessen the amount of Covid cases?
I also am still really unsure what to tell people who say there’s not enough studies done on this type of vaccine and maybe it could have side effects 10 years from now because it’s new. What about the people who say that Fauci has been lying and there’s been so much differing information that they can’t trust the people behind the vaccine?
Hi Sara. Maybe I can help with some of that.
Yes - it would lessen the total amount of COVID cases. But it would not eliminate them entirely. And as a result - and this is key: in our hypothetically 100% vaccinated population, the (now reduced) amount of break through cases would be 100% among vaccinated people since there wouldn’t be any unvaccinated people left to get it, right? So at that point somebody could note that among the hospitalized - 100% of them were vaccinated! But of course this would be the case, since there are so few unvaccinated left. That’s why it’s important to look instead at the percentage of vaccinated people who get hospitalized with COVID and compare that with the percentage of unvaccinated people who get hospitalized. That is the statistic that would really be of interest to you if you want to evaluate vaccine effectiveness.
Regarding vaccine side-effects: I heard one knowledgeable veterinary doctor put it this way. There is no such thing as zero risk - but what the medical community is responding to is like a truck bearing down on somebody standing in the highway. The medical community is telling them to get off the road (and has made a way for most of them to do just that). But they heard of somebody who got bit by a snake in the grass, so they choose instead to stay in front of the oncoming truck.
People avoiding the vaccine are making a decision just like that. Yes - there could be a snake in the grass, and less than one in a million might indeed face that. But meanwhile, a whopping 1 to 2% of them are going to get hit by the truck and be hospitalized, and some of those will die, and a whole lot of the rest will suffer life-altering consequences lasting for months or years or the rest of their lives. People avoiding the vaccine are making a poor decision for themselves and their families because of inflated fears that have been stoked and spread about the possible “snake in the grass.” So what should be done? What would Jesus do for any that he loves? He would yell at them to stop being idiots and get off the d*** road!
I won’t apologize for some emotion showing through there. I do love so many people that I work and live with and I hate to see them so taken advantage of by the very people and sources that they keep going back to.
4 Likes
Well, we’ve had a lot of vaccines over the decades and so far not a single one of them has ever produced that kind of delayed negative reaction. There is no biological reason for thinking these vaccines will do anything of the sort. Meanwhile, we know for certain that infection with the virus is causing long-term, quite possibly life-long, severe disability in millions of people.
I don’t know that Fauci lied about anything, nor do I care. He doesn’t approve vaccines and has nothing to do with collecting or analyzing the data that tell us whether they’re safe and effective. People who have devoted their lives to improving public health assess the data, and they do so all over the world. Why would scientists and doctors in so many places lie about something – especially when they’re all being vaccinated themselves?
7 Likes
For a real life example of what happens when most get vaccinated:
2 Likes
There is no law against fact-checking a claim. Regarding the claim that Fauci has been lying, for example, I found–rather quickly on-line–this information from The Wuhan Lab and the Gain-of-Function Disagreement. Now, I don’t really expect you to read the whole thing, so I’ll ask you a few simple questions to ask “the people” who say Fauci is lying.
- What lie or lies has Fauci told?
- Who or what is the source of the claim that Fauci is lying?
- Have “the people” who say Fauci is lying ever read or heard God’s commandment: “Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbor.”
- Are the folks who oppose vaccination aware that: “The global agency of the Southern Baptist Convention, the largest evangelical Protestant denomination in the U.S., announced this month it is requiring vaccinations for missionaries going into the field amid the pandemic.” [Source: Southern Baptist Convention mandates COVID-19 vaccine for its missionaries ].
4 Likes
Yes, that’s right. You can look at current vaccination rates here: It’s nothing close to 100% of the population because all the children under 11 aren’t eligible.
The vaccine is processed out of your body within a few days. There has never been a case of a vaccine causing a side effect that emerged more than six-weeks after the vaccine. You can’t prove it’s impossible, but why worry about something that has never been seen in the history of vaccination? This idea of long-term side effects is a made-up fear, it’s not based in actual medical realities or knowledge of how human immune systems work.
I tell them they are trusting the wrong people for information. The people spreading this vaccine misinformation have been shown to be liars again and again. Why do people keep trusting them instead of the thousands upon thousands of self-sacrificing doctors and scientists, many of them Christians, who are telling them the opposite, that the vaccines are safe and effective?
6 Likes
I work for Wycliffe Bible Translators, and they are also requiring vaccinations. We were given an opportunity to interact with some doctors and nurses if we had questions, (they also told us to consult the Christians and the Vaccine website), and for anyone who won’t get vaccinated, they are being offered support in finding a new vocation. They aren’t messing around.
7 Likes