Biological Information and Intelligent Design: Meyer, Yarus, and the Direct Templating Hypothesis

[Chris_Falter]

@Eddie

So, Chris, are you conceding that Bayesian evolutionary analysis is useless at making predictions in the strict sense, i.e., predictions about the future?

Hi Eddie,

Bayesian analysis can move in either direction in time. If I know that a new allele confers resistance to streptomycin, for example, I can predict that it will provide greater fitness to a bacteria population in my body when I’m taking antibiotics. If a new allele reduces the leg-to-body ratio in male humans, I can predict that it will provide greater fitness to the lucky Valentinos who have it.

That said, any predictions would be probabilistic rather than binary. The overall fitness of a trait in a population in a particular environment is highly complex. And as our friend Steve stated earlier,

@glipsnort

What distinguishes highly predictive scientific fields from ones where prediction is difficult is not the quality of the science, but the intractability of the systems being studied. Complex systems are harder to predict than simpler ones. That’s all – that’s the entire difference.