So just how worried should you be, especially if you're vaccinated and taking precautions like wearing masks in crowds?

[MarkD (A Whateverist, not a Christian)]

@SkovandOfMitaze

I’m kind of the point for myself since I live alone and don’t have as much at stake that in my county where more people don’t wear masks than the amount of people that even got vaccinated it’s like who am I protecting?

Around here there are venues - mostly younger - that are mostly unmasked but indoors most are masked. But if I only had myself to worry about I’d probably lean into my max vaxed survivability more than I do. At some point it starts to seem like why leave your life in a drawer for safekeeping if there never comes a time you can take it out and live it. In the end we lose it. I’d like to get a few more nicks on it.

[SkovandOfMitaze (Mi)]

Bill Burr’s Netflix special “ Live at Red Rocks “ opens up with a pretty funny dark bit about Covid. He’s one of my favorite comedians and so I always watch his stuff along with Jimmy Carr , Anthony Jeselnik and a few others. There is a decent amount of cussing for those who may not be on with it.

[Randy]

@glipsnort

I’d want to see some support for the quoted R0 for BA.5. When I’ve seen numbers like that bandied about, it’s been because people have confused Re (R-effective) with R0. The effective reproduction number for BA.5 is a multiple of that for BA.1, which is a multiple of Delta, and so on, but that doesn’t mean you can just multiply the original R0 of the Wuhan strain by all of those factors to get R0 for BA.5. Reff is the reproduction number given the current immune status of the population (plus whatever other conditions might be present). Most current SARS-CoV-2 evolution is toward immune evasion, not increased transmissibility, so most of the gain each of these subvariants is getting is from evading the immunity conferred by previous variants. Which doesn’t mean that BA.5 isn’t extremely infectious – it is – but the particular numbers being quoted may not be correct.

Thanks! I’ll ask him about it. In the meantime, I am having 2nd thoughts about copyright, so I’ll paraphrase it.

[glipsnort (Steve Schaffner)]

@Randy

Thanks! I’ll ask him about it.

In particular, I’ve seen this cited as a source for a very high R0 estimate for BA.5, Australia is heading for its third Omicron wave. Here’s what to expect from BA.4 and BA.5, which in turn is based on this preprint, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.01.22274406v1.full, which makes clear that some (not well understood) part of the greater success of BA.5 stems from immune evasion, something that got lost along the way.

[Randy]

Here’s what I got back from him–and it links to your Australia paper. Thanks.

Move over, measles: Dominant Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 could be the most infectious viruses known to man | Fortune

[MarkD (A Whateverist, not a Christian)]

Well I survived measles but of course I was a good deal younger then. Now to take on the new champ … or better yet, evade him.

[Randy]

@MarkD

Well I survived measles but of course I was a good deal younger then. Now to take on the new champ … or better yet, evade him.

Hah! Yes, as far as I know, I’ve never had it yet, either. It shows your dedication!

[MarkD (A Whateverist, not a Christian)]

Boy if you’ve never had it in your line of work and with so many cases, I think the title goes to you.

You guys and your links have really helped me clarify what I need to do. I just texted the rest of the council members to let them know I’m not coming to the general meeting next Monday. I’m really very relieved.

Lia had a procedure cancelled yesterday and then rescheduled for next Monday. The reason? The doctor had gotten Covid. Thank God for the added survivability of vaccination or those procedures probably wouldn’t be possible at all now.