Grand Solar Minimum, climate disruption, food production and population dislocation


(Scott koshland) #21

Yes in this we agree this increased volcanic activity during these periods are likely. As I have said before There seems to be increased severe geologic activity such as earthquakes and Volcanos linked to these Grand Solar Minimum. There is more and more research in this area linking solar magnetic fluctuations and radiation to our earths magnetic variation resulting in geologic events. Not much different than the well known lunar influence. But just so you don’t feel left out. Volcanic and geologic activity is also linked to global warming. If it’s CO2 related it must be true. :thinking:. The solar/ lunar models really predict altered energy flows effecting the jet stream and the ocean currents not really overall temperature. These are significant climate changes. They are not predicting the extreme of the little ice age for this series of grand solar minimum. Just the same Don’t sell those snow clothes yet!


#22

That seems to be a correlation without a mechanism.

I think the larger problem is people ignoring the truth of CO2 and its effects as a greenhouse gas. It’s kind of hard to ignore the inescapable physical fact that increasing the concentration of a greenhouse gas in an atmosphere will necessarily trap more heat than would otherwise occur.


(Scott koshland) #23

We can discuss the science until we are both blue in the face. The climatic events and patterns and consequences will speak for themselves. The solar models predict that each of next 6 years will have increasingly severe (anomalous) weather and more likely to have severe geologic events. We will be watching the Southern Hemisphere winter very closely to see if this confirms the predictions.

Meanwhile…

Let it snow let it snow in Morocco,
let it snow let it snow in the Sahara and Algeria
Let it snow let it snow in North America
:grimacing:


#24

Do you agree or disagree that the greenhouse effect is real, and that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will trap more heat?


(Scott koshland) #25

Can someone hopefully with a botany background explain to me what effects the timing of a plants spring bloom? Is it both temperature and light dependent? Are there other factors?


(Scott koshland) #26

I am very concerned about climate change. Historically climate change has almost always resulted in significant social pressure as well as ecological changes. We could shortly be on the edge of such a climate change event. That said We face an incredible array of challenges such as pollution of our air oceans and lands, deforestation, food production restraints, limited resources, technological changes, severe overpopulation especially in many third world developing countries and not even to mention humans greatest harmful affliction, warfare.

All that said, I think that the greatest challenge we face is non of these. I think our greatest challenge we face as a species is understanding God’s purpose for our lives and the spiritual emptiness that pervades our species. The materialistic society that pervades our planet is spiritually empty and will never lead to fulfillment.


#27

How can we face these challenges if we ignore the most basic science that is at the foundation of the problem?

If one has to ignore the most basic concepts of the greenhouse effect, then how can we face up to those larger problems?


#28

And, I would add, the CO2 from volcanoes in only a small fraction of the total CO2 in the atmosphere. (In other words, we can’t blame volcanoes.)


#29

Coming Apr 18 on PBS Nova: Decoding the Weather Machine

Disastrous hurricanes. Widespread droughts and wildfires. Withering heat. Extreme rainfall. It is hard not to conclude that something’s up with the weather, and many scientists agree. It’s the result of the weather machine itself—our climate—changing, becoming hotter and more erratic. In this 2-hour documentary, NOVA will cut through the confusion around climate change. Why do scientists overwhelmingly agree that our climate is changing, and that human activity is causing it? How and when will it affect us through the weather we experience? And what will it take to bend the trajectory of planetary warming toward more benign outcomes? Join scientists around the world on a quest to better understand the workings of the weather and climate machine we call Earth, and discover how we can be resilient—even thrive—in the face of enormous change.


#30

Correct. One of the interesting things about fossil fuels is that they come from dead organisms. Due to this fact, they will carry the same carbon isotope bias that is created by photosynthesis. Photosynthesis favors 12C over 13C, so plants have slightly more 12C than the atmosphere does and more than the abiotic carbon dioxide released by volcanoes. What we have seen over the last century is a decrease in 13C, the exact signature we would expect if the added CO2 came from the burning of fossil fuels, be it petrol or coal.


#31

Have you heard of the literary genre Climate Fiction?

Professor, what’s on your climate fiction syllabus?


(Scott koshland) #32

I don’t think we have as much disagreement as you think. I think We all believe that substantial climate change is upon us with severe consequences on our planet and society. The solar cycle model predictions are really more related to the variations of atmospheric jet-stream, ocean currents and anomalous seasonal weather events than predicting the actual global temperatures. The grand solar minima are repeating cycles that have always been associated with these climate changes as have Grand solar maximum are repeating cycles such as the medieval warming optimum. The overall negative temperature effects seen during the minima are probably more associated with cooling due to significant volcanic activity releasing cooling particles/aerosols. These are repeating cycles. I very much seek to understand the science of our climate. To a certain extent I think perhaps that we are both confusing temperature changes with climate change. I refer to climate changes as changes in our seasonal weather patterns. I do of course understand the effect of greenhouse gases as well as other factors that effect climate. The burden of proof of any theory or model is the actual physical result. The models need to be able to predict these events. The Grand solar minimum models predict the current patterns that we are seeing while the CO2 models only really predict temperature increases and if you like more severe weather events. Remember until last year the previous 2-4 years didn’t have too many severe hurricanes. So what changed over night? Are you predicting severe hurricanes this year? Next year? What are you predicting for Australia and South America this winter? What are you predicting for our next couple of winters? Is snow really a thing of the past?

These late spring storms in North America, 5 nor’easters and the beast from the east in Europe are what the grand minimum solar cycle models predict. Look we can have these events even while global average temperatures increase. This model predicts what amount to shortened planting seasons. Essentially longer stretched out winters. Not necessarily colder or even more severe. It predicts that the next 4-6 winters will become increasingly severe and long. It predicts Late spring and early fall snows and frosts often in what are prime food production areas. It also predicts crop damaging summer weather such as heavy rains. I believe very much in climate change. My main concern in the short term is for our ability to adequately feed the planets 7 billion population. We already have a growing world refugee dislocation what would happen if food resources become significantly stretched?