A few questions about climate change and global warming

[Terry_Sampson]

• I certainly expect to.

[knor (Kai)]

@wbwane

Every continent on the globe is burning less—some much less—than usual.

How much of forest is burning is a question that is more complicated than just calculating the hectares. For example, if a large part of available forest burns within a period of a few years, there are less forest remaining to burn during the following year.
In addition, the amount of fires in some parts of the globe (like Amazonia and some parts of Africa) depend on humans burning forests and grasslands with purpose, often illegally. In those areas, the number of fires reflect law enforcement policy. When there is some control of illegal burning of forests, the number of fires drop. An example of this is Brazil.

For example in Europe, this year has been one of the worst because long dry and hot periods have made the forests unusually dry. The fires have also affected people in inhabited areas, causing larger economical costs than forest fires in distant areas would have caused:

Wildfires in Europe: Is 2026 already the worst year on record

In Canada, the year has not been (so far) record bad but it is worse than the 10-year average. Currently, 37 out of a total of 601 recorded wildfires are out of control. The cumulative area burnt (estimated from satellite hotspots) is in top-3, with only 2023 and 2025 being clearly worse. Year 2024 was crudely equal, which means that the last four years (2023-2026) have been the worst of the last 20+ years.

Canadian Wildland Fire Information System / Système canadien d'information ...

[Roy (Roy (Listener twice correct))]

@wbwane

As of Aug. 5, Oceania has burned 14% less than its 2012-25 average and Europe has burned 35% less.

But as of Aug 12th, Europe has apparently burned 13% more than average.

So that article looks to be cherry-picking data.

[EastwoodDC (Dan Eastwood)]

There is a deep problem here. Climate change is a long term problem requiring generation spanning efforts to address. Meanwhile our economy is focused on extracting short-term profits, and our politicians on the next elections cycle. There is no short-term carrot we can dangle to leaders with such short term focus.

In another context, Ken Burnside coined the “Three Generation Rule”, which applies equally well to plans to address climate change:

The Three Generation Rule of Space Colonies states that space colonies have an average life-span of three generations until the life-support and other technical system decay to a point where the colony cannot sustain life. As Rick Robinson puts it *“the degree of social discipline needed for a space habitat to survive indefinitely is beyond the capability of “normal” human societies. The human tendency to favor short-term expediency. will, over time, make the habitat ecosystem more and more precarious.”

And if you like science fiction, you can get lost for days reading that web site (Atomic Rockets).

See also: 'Asabiyyah - Wikipedia

[BuffaloMax17 (Friend of science and God)]

@Terry_Sampson

When you get what you want, what are you going to do with it?

Occasionally bring it up with friends and family whenever the topic should come up. I live in a predominantly rural, and thus mostly conservative, area. Because of this, whenever I get talking with someone chances are that the issue of Nebraska’s rubbish weather will come up (like tornados, hail, snow or lack thereof, and drought). Thus it usually isn’t unlikely that the issue of climate change will then come up. I’ve encountered a wide variety of different views (some I’ve once held and others I haven’t heard before) so I just wanted a bit more insight for when the issue comes up again.

[St.Roymond]

A big aspect of this was explained to us in forestry class by the chief forester at a local fire department: recognizing that the fire season is expected to be the longest on record, fire and forestry departments across North America were making preparations to deal with fires quickly.

[jpm (Phil McCurdy)]

@EastwoodDC

There is no short-term carrot we can dangle to leaders with such short term focus.

I was just thinking about this. About the only major player that thinks multi-generationally is China, and they of course have other problems . They are seeming to look forward with energy, and building the technology and infrastructure to profit from it.

[Argon]

@wbwane

There is a link to the full Wall Street Journal article down in the middle.

Not an article. An opinion piece in the editorial section of the Wall Street Journal. The editorial section has vastly different publication criteria than the news sections. The author (political scientist) has a Wikipedia entry here. Bjørn Lomborg - Wikipedia

[Andy7 (Andy)]

Of course one cannot use a single wildfire season to say anything definitive about climate change. There are some places in Canada where the 2026 season has been very bad. Maybe overall, the 2026 season in Canada will not break records – let’s hope so. According to FACT SHEET: Climate change and wildfires in Canada the last three fire seasons (prior to 2026) have been among the 10 worst on record. See also the graph here Climate change in Canada - Wikipedia

We can say that the wildfire seasons in Canada have been consistent with the predicted effects of climate change.